On the neural network approach for forecasting of nonstationary time series on the basis of the Hilbert-Huang transform

  • Authors:

  • V. G. Kurbatskii;D. N. Sidorov;V. A. Spiryaev;N. V. Tomin

  • Affiliations:

  • Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia;Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia;Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia;Melentiev Energy Systems Institute, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia

  • Venue:
  • Automation and Remote Control
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

The two-stage adaptive approach for time series forecasting is proposed. The first stage involves the decomposition of the initial time series into basis functions and application to them of the Hilbert transform. At the second stage the obtained functions and their instantaneous amplitudes are used as input variables of neural network forecasting. The efficiency of the developed approach is displayed in real time series in the electric power problem of forecasting the sharply variable implementations of active power flows.