A generic methodology for developing fuzzy decision models

  • Authors:

  • Roel Bosma;Jan Van Den Berg;Uzay Kaymak;Henk Udo;Johan Verreth

  • Affiliations:

  • Aquaculture and Fisheries, Wageningen University (WU), P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands;Section of ICT, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA, The Netherlands;Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands;Animal Production Systems, WU, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands;Aquaculture and Fisheries, Wageningen University (WU), P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands

  • Venue:
  • Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

An important paradigm in decision-making models is utility-maximization where most models do not include actors' motives. Fuzzy set theory on the other hand offers a method to simulate human decision-making. However, the literature describing expert-driven fuzzy logic models, rarely gives precise details on the methodology (to be) used. To fill the gap, this paper describes a methodology of 10 steps to model individual actor's drivers, motives, hereby taking into account the ecological, social and economic context. Testing the methodology on the composition of mixed farming systems in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, showed that manual model development is not a waterfall approach but requires feedback loops, except for model implementation. Using feed-back loops, the proposed 10 step method allowed to include human drivers and motives other than utility-maximization and to maintain a degree of transparency hard to achieve when using automated procedures.