Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
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Now a days eruptive activity and seismicity are increasing significantly, and in the volcanic belt, they are thought to be inter correlated. Japan and Indonesia are frequently affected by earthquakes and eruptions but occurring patterns are not similar in both the countries. The results of time series analysis indicate that the earthquakes follow strong non-stationary property for Indonesia but on the other hand, Japan has seasonal effect. By applying some time series tools ARIMA(3,1,2) and ARIMA(2,0,1)×(1,0,1) models has proposed for forecasting the earthquakes of Indonesia and Japan, respectively. The criterion for occurrence of a large earthquake based on timing of volcanic eruptions has a time-distance relationship. The results of the analysis strongly suggest that time-distance relations may help to predict an earthquake before it strikes if the epicentral location can be identified in advance and if the activity of the volcanoes is well monitored for both Japan and Indonesia.