Predicting evasion candidates in higher education institutions

  • Authors:
  • Remis Balaniuk;Hercules Antonio do Prado;Renato da Veiga Guadagnin;Edilson Ferneda;Paulo Roberto Cobbe

  • Affiliations:
  • Graduate Program on Knowledge and IT Management, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brasília, DF, Brazil;Graduate Program on Knowledge and IT Management, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brasília and Embrapa - Management and Strategy Secretariat, Parque Estação Biológica, Bras ...;Graduate Program on Knowledge and IT Management, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brasília, DF, Brazil;Graduate Program on Knowledge and IT Management, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brasília, DF, Brazil;Graduate Program on Knowledge and IT Management, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brasília and Information Technology Department, UniCEUB College, Brasília, DF, Brazil

  • Venue:
  • MEDI'11 Proceedings of the First international conference on Model and data engineering
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

Since the nineties, Data Mining (DM) has shown to be a privileged partner in business by providing the organizations a rich set of tools to extract novel and useful knowledge from databases. In this paper, a DM application in the highly competitive market of educational services is presented. A model was built by combining a set of classifiers into a committee machine to predict the likelihood that a student who completed his/her second term will remain in the institution until graduation.The model was applied to undergraduate student records in a higher education institution in Brasília, the capital of Brazil, and has shown to be predictive for evasion in a high accuracy. The unbiased selection of students with elevated evasion risk affords the institution the opportunity to devise mitigation strategies and preempt a decision by the student to evade.