A temporal Bayesian network for diagnosis and prediction

  • Authors:
  • Gustavo Arroyo-Figueroa;Luis Enrique Suear

  • Affiliations:
  • IIE - USP, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico;ITESM, Morelos, Mexico

  • Venue:
  • UAI'99 Proceedings of the Fifteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
  • Year:
  • 1999

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Abstract

Diagnosis and prediction in some domains, like medical and industrial diagnosis, require a representation that combines uncertainty management and temporal reasoning. Based on the fact that in many cases there are few state changes in the temporal range of interest, we propose a novel representation called Temporal Nodes Bayesian Network (TNBN). In a TNBN each node represents an event or state change of a variable, and an arc corresponds to a causal-temporal relation. The temporal intervals can differ in number and size for each temporal node, so this allows multiple granularity. Our approach is contrasted with a dynamic Bayesian network for a simple medical example. An empirical evaluation is presented for a more complex problem, a subsystem of a fossil power plant, in which this approach is used for fault diagnosis and event prediction with good results.