Analysing sensitivity data from probabilistic networks

  • Authors:
  • Linda C. van der Gaag;Silja Renooij

  • Affiliations:
  • Institute of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, The Netherlands;Institute of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, The Netherlands

  • Venue:
  • UAI'01 Proceedings of the Seventeenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2001

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Abstract

With the advance of efficient algorithms for sensitivity analysis of probabilistic networks, studying the sensitivities revealed by real-life networks is becoming feasible. As the amount of data yielded by an analysis of even a moderatelysized network is already overwhelming, effective methods for extracting relevant information from these data are called for. One such method is to study the derivatives of the sensitivity functions yielded, to identify the parameters that upon variation are expected to have a large effect on a probability of interest. We further propose to build upon the concept of admissible deviation, which captures the extent to which a parameter can be varied without inducing a change in the most likely outcome. We illustrate these concepts by means of a sensitivity analysis of a reallife probabilistic network in the field of oncology.