Using qualitative relationships for bounding probability distributions

  • Authors:
  • Chao-Lin Liu;Michael P. Wellman

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Michigan AI Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan;University of Michigan AI Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan

  • Venue:
  • UAI'98 Proceedings of the Fourteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
  • Year:
  • 1998

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Abstract

We exploit qualitative probabilistic relationships among variables for computing bounds of conditional probability distributions of interest in Bayesian networks. Using the signs of qualitative relationships, we can implement abstraction operations that are guaranteed to bound the distributions of interest in the desired direction. By evaluating incrementally improved approximate networks, our algorithm obtains monotonically tightening bounds that converge to exact distributions. For supermodular utility functions, the tightening bounds monotonically reduce the set of admissible decision alternatives as well.