Probabilistic reasoning in expert systems: theory and algorithms
Probabilistic reasoning in expert systems: theory and algorithms
The economic approach to artificial intelligence
ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR)
Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
Toward design as collaboration
AAAI '98/IAAI '98 Proceedings of the fifteenth national/tenth conference on Artificial intelligence/Innovative applications of artificial intelligence
Market-oriented programming (abstract)
AAAI'97/IAAI'97 Proceedings of the fourteenth national conference on artificial intelligence and ninth conference on Innovative applications of artificial intelligence
Representing aggregate belief through the competitive equilibrium of a securities market
UAI'97 Proceedings of the Thirteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
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We present a methodology for representing probabilistic relationships in a general-equilibrium economic model. Specifically, we define a precise mapping from a Bayesian network with binary nodes to a market price system where consumers and producers trade in uncertain propositions. We demonstrate the correspondence between the equilibrium prices of goods in this economy and the probabilities represented by the Bayesian network. A computational market model such as this may provide a useful framework for investigations of belief aggregation, distributed probabilistic inference, resource allocation under uncertainty, and other problems of decentralized uncertainty.