Evidential reasoning using stochastic simulation of causal models
Artificial Intelligence
Temporal reasoning in artificial intelligence
Exploring artificial intelligence
ARCO1: an application of belief networks to the oil market
Proceedings of the seventh conference (1991) on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models (2nd ed.)
Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models (2nd ed.)
Probabilistic causal reasoning
UAI '88 Proceedings of the Fourth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Simulation Approaches to General Probabilistic Inference on Belief Networks
UAI '89 Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Weighing and Integrating Evidence for Stochastic Simulation in Bayesian Networks
UAI '89 Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
A model for projection and action
IJCAI'89 Proceedings of the 11th international joint conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 2
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We have developed a probabilistic forecasting methodology through a synthesis of belief-network models and classical time-series analysis. We present the dynamic network model (DNM) and describe methods for constructing, refining, and performing inference with this representation of temporal probabilistic knowledge. The DNM representation extends static belief-network models to more general dynamic forecasting models by integrating and iteratively refining contemporaneous and time-lagged dependencies. We discuss key concepts in terms of a model for forecasting U.S. car sales in Japan.