Combining nonlinear independent component analysis and neural network for the prediction of Asian stock market indexes

Authors:
Wensheng Dai;Jui-Yu Wu;Chi-Jie Lu
Affiliations:
China Financial Policy Research Center, Renmin University of China, PR China and Financial School, Renmin University of China, PR China;Department of Business Administration, Lunghwa University of Science and Technology, Taiwan, ROC;Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Ching Yun University, Taiwan, ROC
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2012

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Abstract

With the economic successes of several Asian economies and their increasingly important roles in the global financial market, the prediction of Asian stock markets has becoming a hot research area. As Asian stock markets are highly dynamic and exhibit wide variation, it may more realistic and practical that assumed the stock indexes of Asian stock markets are nonlinear mixture data. In this research, a time series prediction model by combining nonlinear independent component analysis (NLICA) and neural network is proposed to forecast Asian stock markets. NLICA is a novel feature extraction technique to find independent sources from observed nonlinear mixture data where no relevant data mixing mechanisms are available. In the proposed method, we first use NLICA to transform the input space composed of original time series data into the feature space consisting of independent components representing underlying information of the original data. Then, the ICs are served as the input variables of the neural network to build prediction model. Among the Asian stock markets, Japanese and China's stock markets are the biggest two in Asia and they respectively represent the two types of stock markets. Therefore, in order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, the Nikkei 225 closing index and Shanghai B-share closing index are used as illustrative examples. Experimental results show that the proposed forecasting model not only improves the prediction accuracy of the neural network approach but also outperforms the three comparison methods. The proposed stock index prediction model can be therefore a good alternative for Asian stock market indexes.