A statistical approach to predictive detection
Computer Networks: The International Journal of Computer and Telecommunications Networking - Special issue on selected topics in network and systems management
An Approach to On-line Predictive Detection
MASCOTS '00 Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Modeling, Analysis and Simulation of Computer and Telecommunication Systems
Monitoring and early warning for internet worms
Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Computer and communications security
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The exponential increase of malicious and criminal activities in cyber space is posing serious threat which could destabilize the foundation of modern information society. In particular, unexpected network paralysis or break-down created by the spread of malicious traffic could cause confusion in a nationwide scale, and unless effective countermeasures against such attacks are formulated in time, this could develop into a catastrophic condition. As a result, there has been vigorous search to develop a functional state-level cyber-threat early-warning system: however, the efforts have not yielded satisfying results or created plausible alternatives to date due to the insufficiency of the existing system and technical difficulties. The existing cyber-threat forecasting depends on the individual experience and ability of security manager whose decision is based on the limited data collected from ESM and TMS. Consequently, this could result in a disastrous warning failure against a variety of unknown and unpredictable attacks. It is the aim of this paper to offer a conceptual design for “Knowledge-based Real-Time Cyber-Threat Early-Warning System, and promote further researches into the subject.