Predictability for autonomous decision support

  • Authors:
  • Francisco Coelho;Helder Coelho

  • Affiliations:
  • Departamento de Matemática, Universidade de Évora;Departamento de Informática, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa

  • Venue:
  • MABS'05 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation
  • Year:
  • 2005

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Abstract

The experimental scientist need tools to quantify and classify collected data. This paper proposes to give meaning and measure to the intuitive concept of predictability. It is a global and time dependent real valued quantity that, we argue, indicates how hard it is to make a forecast for the next value on a time series. We start with a a definition of predictability for binary words and show properties about its growth and computational cost. Our measure evaluates in time On3, what is an acceptable performance specially for supporting bounded time decisions. Then, we investigate application procedures illustrated with data achieved from iterations of the logistic map, economic simulations and the Portuguese GDP (Gross Domestic Product).