Operations Research
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic inference and influence diagrams
Operations Research
On Knowledge Representation in Belief Networks
IPMU '90 Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems: Uncertainty in Knowledge Bases
MUNIN: a causal probabilistic network for interpretation of electromyographic findings
IJCAI'87 Proceedings of the 10th international joint conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 1
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Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underlying belief network models the variables believed to have an impact on the crude oil market. A pictorial market model--developed on a MAC II-facilitates consensus among the members of the forecasting team. The system forecasts crude oil prices via Monte Carlo analyses of the network. Several different models of the oil market have been developed; the system's ability to be updated quickly highlights its flexibility.