Management Science
Value-driven expert systems for decision support
Expert judgment and expert systems
A comparison of decision alaysis and expert rules for sequential diagnosis
UAI '88 Proceedings of the Fourth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
An experimental comparison of knowledge engineering for expert systems and for decision analysis
AAAI'87 Proceedings of the sixth National conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 2
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In mechanical design, there is often unavoidable uncertainty in estimates of design performance. Evaluation of design alternatives requires consideration of the impact of this uncertainty. Expert heuristics embody assumptions regarding the designer's attitude towards risk and uncertainty that might be reasonable in most cases but inaccurate in others. We present a technique to allow designers to incorporate their own unique attitude towards uncertainty as opposed to those assumed by the domain expert's rules. The general approach is to eliminate aspects of heuristic rules which directly or indirectly include assumptions regarding the user's attitude towards risk, and replace them with explicit, user-specified probabilistic multiattribute utility and probability distribution functions. We illustrate the method in a system for material selection for automobile bumpers.