Competing with wild prediction rules

  • Authors:
  • Vladimir Vovk

  • Affiliations:
  • Computer Learning Research Centre, Department of Computer Science, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey, UK

  • Venue:
  • COLT'06 Proceedings of the 19th annual conference on Learning Theory
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

We consider the problem of on-line prediction competitive with a benchmark class of continuous but highly irregular prediction rules. It is known that if the benchmark class is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, there exists a prediction algorithm whose average loss over the first N examples does not exceed the average loss of any prediction rule in the class plus a “regret term” of O(N−1/2). The elements of some natural benchmark classes, however, are so irregular that these classes are not Hilbert spaces. In this paper we develop Banach-space methods to construct a prediction algorithm with a regret term of O(N$^{\rm -1/{\it p}}$), where p∈(2,∞) and p–2 reflects the degree to which the benchmark class fails to be a Hilbert space.