Biases in multi-criteria, satisficing decisions due to data errors

  • Authors:
  • Irit Askira Gelman

  • Affiliations:
  • DQIQ Research and Solutions

  • Venue:
  • Journal of Data and Information Quality (JDIQ)
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

This inquiry centers on an asymmetry, or bias, in the accuracy of multi-criteria, conjunctive, and disjunctive decisions, which originates from fundamental properties of the logical conjunction and disjunction operations. A mathematical-statistical analysis indicates that, as we keep adding criteria to a multi-criteria conjunctive or disjunctive decision rule, errors in the data produce decision errors asymmetrically. As a result, in conjunctive decisions, the probability of a false negative increases while the probability of a false positive decreases. In contrast, in disjunctive decisions, as we keep adding criteria, the probability of a false positive increases while that of a false negative decreases. For instance, in a conjunctive business decision rule, the probability of overlooking a bargain can be far greater than the probability of misjudging an unattractive offer to be a good one. A series of Monte Carlo simulations validates the analytical findings and explores the contribution of several additional factors.