Applied multivariate statistical analysis
Applied multivariate statistical analysis
Evaluation of Database Management Systems
Evaluation of Database Management Systems
Fundamentals of Database Systems
Fundamentals of Database Systems
An Empirical Study of Programming Language Trends
IEEE Software
Modeling the evolution of operating systems: An empirical study
Journal of Systems and Software
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The evolution of software technology trends is driven by several complex factors, many of which are difficult to define, let alone quantify, and many influence each other in non-trivial ways. This makes the task of modeling and predicting the evolution of software technology trends particularly difficult. Yet many decision makers in industry, government and academia often make decisions on the basis of qualitative assessments and expert opinion. Against the background of the high stakes attached to such decisions, reliance on qualitative assessments and expert opinions is inadequate. In this paper we discuss how we model the evolution of a special trend, namely database management systems, by collecting factual historic data and deriving a statistical model from it. This work is part of our team's long term effort to complement qualitative approaches with quantitative methods, based on factual data.