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We present in this paper a new model for representing probabilistic information in a semi-structured (XML) database, based on the use of probabilistic event variables. This work is motivated by the need of keeping track of both confidence and lineage of the information stored in a semi-structured warehouse. For instance, the modules of a (Hidden Web) content warehouse may derive information concerning the semantics of discovered Web services that is by nature not certain. Our model, namely the fuzzy tree model, supports both querying (tree pattern queries with join) and updating (transactions containing an arbitrary set of insertions and deletions) over probabilistic tree data. We highlight its expressive power and discuss implementation issues.