Sensitivity analysis of the artificial neural network outputs in simulation of the evaporation process at different climatologic regimes

Authors:
Vahid Nourani;Mina Sayyah Fard
Affiliations:
Faculty of Civil Eng., University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran and St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, Dept. Civil Eng., University of Minnesota, USA;Faculty of Civil Eng., University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
Venue:
Advances in Engineering Software
Year:
2012

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Abstract

This study follows three aims; firstly to develop and examine three different Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) viz.: Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN) and Elman network for estimating daily evaporation rate of Tabriz and Urmia cities using measured hydro-meteorological data; second to compare the results of ANN models with three physically-based models include, Energy balance, Aerodynamic, and Penman models and also black-box Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model; and finally to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of each input parameter on the output in terms of magnitude and direction. The used meteorological data set to develop the models for estimation of daily evaporation includes daily air temperature, evaporation, solar radiation, air pressure, relative humidity, and wind speed measured at synoptic stations of Tabriz and Urmia cities which have almost distinct climatologic conditions. The obtained results denote to the superiority of the ANN models on the classic models. Also based on the comparisons, the MLP network performs better than the RBNN and Elman network so that in the next step, sensitivity analysis is performed by the Partial Derivation (PaD) and Weights methods on the MLP outputs. Sensitivity analysis results show although air temperature, solar radiation and the amount of evaporation at previous time step are the effective parameters in estimation of daily evaporation at both regions, due to the climatologic condition wind speed and relative humidity are other predominant parameters in Tabriz and Urmia, respectively.