MULP: a multi-layer perceptron application to long-term, out-of-sample time series prediction

  • Authors:
  • Eros Pasero;Giovanni Raimondo;Suela Ruffa

  • Affiliations:
  • Electronics Department, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy;Electronics Department, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy;Electronics Department, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy

  • Venue:
  • ISNN'10 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Advances in Neural Networks - Volume Part II
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

A forecasting approach based on Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (named by the authors MULP) is proposed for the NN5 111 time series long-term, out of sample forecasting competition This approach follows a direct prediction strategy and is completely automatic It has been chosen after having been compared with other regression methods (as for example Support Vector Machines (SVMs)) and with a recursive approach to prediction Good results have also been obtained using the ANNs forecaster together with a dimensional reduction of the input features space performed through a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a proper information theory based backward selection algorithm Using this methodology we took the 10th place among the best 50% scorers in the final results table of the NN5 competition.