Toward a target-specific method of threat assessment

  • Authors:

  • Yael Shahar

  • Affiliations:

  • Senior Researcher, International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya

  • Venue:
  • ISI'05 Proceedings of the 2005 IEEE international conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics
  • Year:
  • 2005

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Abstract

The threat assessment model used here has been used by researchers at ICT to estimate the “attractiveness” of specific facilities to terrorist organizations. The model uses on-site evaluations of vulnerabilities to build a portfolio of possible attack scenarios. These scenarios are then analyzed using known or estimated sensitivities and target-assessment criteria for the different organizations. The result is a means of rating the different scenarios according to their attractiveness to different types of organization. This enables decision-makers to concentrate resources on most probably scenarios, rather than on worst-case scenarios. The model has provided credible results for actual venues.