A land-use systems approach to represent land-use dynamics at continental and global scales

  • Authors:

  • Aurélien Letourneau;Peter H. Verburg;Elke Stehfest

  • Affiliations:

  • Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands and Land Dynamics Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands ...;Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands

  • Venue:
  • Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

Most of the current global land cover datasets and global scale land-use models use a classification of land cover based on the dominant land cover type within a distinct region or pixel. Such a classification disregards the diversity and intensity of human influence on land systems. In this paper we propose a novel way of classification and modeling land-use using a classification based on land-use systems (LUSs) that represent specific combinations of human-environment interactions. A cluster analysis was used to identify and map these LUSs. The analysis accounted for population density, accessibility to market places, land-use/cover types and livestock densities. A conceptual framework was developed to model dynamics in LUSs accounting for both land cover and land management changes. LUSs changes were simulated based on changes in both local socio-economic and biophysical conditions and regional-scale changes in demand for agricultural products. The new land-use systems change model was used in the context of the integrated assessment model IMAGE.