Interactive uncertainty analysis

  • Authors:
  • Pedro Szekely;Yu-Han Chang;Rajiv Maheswaran;Yan Wang;Huihui Cheng;Karan Singh

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Southern California, Marina del Rey, California, United States;University of Southern California, Marina del Rey, California, United States;University of Southern California, Marina del Rey, California, United States;University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States;University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States;University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, United States

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 2012 ACM international conference on Intelligent User Interfaces
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

Humans have difficulty evaluating the effects of uncertainty on schedules. People often mitigate the effects of uncertainty by adding slack based on experience and non-stochastic analyses such as the critical path method (CPM). This is costly as it leads to longer than necessary schedules, and can be ineffective without a clear understanding of where slack is needed. COMPASS is an interactive real-time tool that analyzes schedule uncertainty for a stochastic task network. An important feature is that it concurrently calculates stochastic critical paths and critical tasks. COMPASS visualizes this information on top of a traditional Gantt view, giving users insight into how delays caused by uncertain durations propagate down the schedule. Evaluations with 10 users show that users can use COMPASS to answer a variety of questions about the possible evolutions of a schedule (e.g., what is the likelihood that all activities will complete before a given date?)