Users and developers: an agent-based simulation of open source software evolution

Authors:
Neil Smith;Andrea Capiluppi;Juan Fernández-Ramil
Affiliations:
Centre for Research in Computing, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK;University of Lincoln, Brayford Pool, Lincoln, UK;Centre for Research in Computing, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
Venue:
SPW/ProSim'06 Proceedings of the 2006 international conference on Software Process Simulation and Modeling
Year:
2006

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Abstract

We present an agent-based simulation model of open source software (OSS). To our knowledge, this is the first model of OSS evolution that includes four significant factors: productivity limited by the complexity of software modules, the software's fitness for purpose, the motivation of developers, and the role of users in defining requirements. The model was evaluated by comparing the simulated results against four measures of software evolution (system size, proportion of highly complex modules, level of complexity control work, and distribution of changes) for four large OSS systems. The simulated results resembled all the observed data, including alternating periods of growth and stagnation. The fidelity of the model suggests that the factors included here have significant effects on the evolution of OSS systems.