A system dynamics approach to modeling the sensitivity of inappropriate emergency department utilization

  • Authors:

  • Joshua G. Behr;Rafael Diaz

  • Affiliations:

  • Virginia Modeling, Analysis & Simulation Center – VMASC, Old Dominion University, Suffolk, VA;Virginia Modeling, Analysis & Simulation Center – VMASC, Old Dominion University, Suffolk, VA

  • Venue:
  • SBP'10 Proceedings of the Third international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling, and Prediction
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

Non-urgent Emergency Department utilization has been attributed with increasing congestion in the flow and treatment of patients and, by extension, conditions the quality of care and profitability of the Emergency Department. Interventions designed to divert populations to more appropriate care may be cautiously received by operations managers due to uncertainty about the impact an adopted intervention may have on the two values of congestion and profitability. System Dynamics (SD) modeling and simulation may be used to measure the sensitivity of these two, often-competing, values of congestion and profitability and, thus, provide an additional layer of information designed to inform strategic decision making.