Coevolution of epidemics, social networks, and individual behavior: a case study

Authors:
Jiangzhuo Chen;Achla Marathe;Madhav Marathe
Affiliations:
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA;Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA;Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA
Venue:
SBP'10 Proceedings of the Third international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling, and Prediction
Year:
2010

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Abstract

This research shows how a limited supply of antivirals can be distributed optimally between the hospitals and the market so that the attack rate is minimized and enough revenue is generated to recover the cost of the antivirals. Results using an individual based model find that prevalence elastic demand behavior delays the epidemic and change in the social contact network induced by isolation reduces the peak of the epidemic significantly. A microeconomic analysis methodology combining behavioral economics and agent-based simulation is a major contribution of this work. In this paper we apply this methodology to analyze the fairness of the stockpile distribution, and the response of human behavior to disease prevalence level and its interaction with the market.