Evolutionary multi-stage financial scenario tree generation

  • Authors:
  • Ronald Hochreiter

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Finance, Accounting and Statistics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business

  • Venue:
  • EvoCOMNET'10 Proceedings of the 2010 international conference on Applications of Evolutionary Computation - Volume Part II
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations (represented as scenario trees) have been suggested in the literature. In this paper, a new evolutionary algorithm to create scenario trees for multi-stage financial optimization models will be presented. Numerical results and implementation details conclude the paper.