Financial risk modeling with markov chains

  • Authors:
  • Arturo Leccadito;Sergio Ortobelli Lozza;Emilio Russo;Gaetano Iaquinta

  • Affiliations:
  • Cass Business School, London, U.K.;University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy;CARISMA, Brunel University, West London, U.K.;University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy

  • Venue:
  • IDEAL'06 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Intelligent Data Engineering and Automated Learning
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

This paper proposes markovian models in portfolio theory and risk management. In a first analysis, we describe discrete time optimal allocation models. Then, we examine the investor’s optimal choices either when returns are uniquely determined by their mean and variance or when they are modeled by a Markov chain. Moreover we propose different models to compute VaR and CVaR when returns are modeled by a Markov chain.