Availability modelling of repairable systems using Bayesian networks

  • Authors:
  • Martin Neil;David Marquez

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London, London E1 4NS, UK and Agena Ltd., 32 Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8DL, UK;Department of Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London, London E1 4NS, UK

  • Venue:
  • Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

We present a hybrid Bayesian network (HBN) framework to model the availability of renewable systems. We use an approximate inference algorithm for HBNs that involves dynamically discretizing the domain of all continuous variables and use this to obtain accurate approximations for the renewal or repair time distributions for a system. We show how we can use HBNs to model corrective repair time, logistics delay times and scheduled maintenance time distributions and combine these with time-to-failure distributions to derive system availability. Example models are presented and are accompanied by detailed descriptions of how repair (renewal) distributions might be modelled using HBNs.