Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848---2009)

Authors:
Antonio Fernández-Cano;Manuel Torralbo;Mónica Vallejo
Affiliations:
Department of Research Methods in Education, University of Granada, Granada, Spain 18071;Department of Mathematics, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain 14071;Department of Didactics, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain 28071
Venue:
Scientometrics
Year:
2012

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Abstract

This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price's predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.