Actors and factors in land-use simulation: The challenge of urban shrinkage

  • Authors:

  • Dagmar Haase;Annegret Haase;Nadja Kabisch;Sigrun Kabisch;Dieter Rink

  • Affiliations:

  • Humboldt University Berlin, Institute of Geography, Rudower Chaussee 16, 10099 Berlin, Germany and Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, P ...;Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany;Humboldt University Berlin, Institute of Geography, Rudower Chaussee 16, 10099 Berlin, Germany and Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, P ...;Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany;Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany

  • Venue:
  • Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Year:
  • 2012

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

Both modelers and social scientists attempt to find better explanations of complex urban systems. They include development paths, underlying driving forces and their expected impacts. So far, land-use research has predominantly focused on urban growth. However, new challenges have arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the social and land-use sciences. Therefore, the focus of this paper is a twofold one: Using the example of urban shrinkage, we first discuss the capacity of existing land-use modeling approaches to integrate new social science knowledge in terms of land-use, demography and governance because social science models are indispensable for accurately explaining the processes behind shrinkage. Second, we discuss the combination of system dynamics (SD), cellular automata (CA) and agent-based model (ABM) approaches to cover the main characteristics, processes and patterns of urban shrinkage. Using Leipzig, Germany, as a case study, we provide the initial results of a joint SD-CA model and an ABM that both operationalize social science knowledge regarding urban shrinkage.