Ratio-based lengths of intervals to improve fuzzy time series forecasting

Authors:
Kunhuang Huarng;Tiffany Hui-Kuang Yu
Affiliations:
Dept. of Int. Trade, Feng Chia Univ., Taichung, Taiwan;-
Venue:
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B: Cybernetics
Year:
2006

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Abstract

The objective of this study is to explore ways of determining the useful lengths of intervals in fuzzy time series. It is suggested that ratios, instead of equal lengths of intervals, can more properly represent the intervals among observations. Ratio-based lengths of intervals are, therefore, proposed to improve fuzzy time series forecasting. Algebraic growth data, such as enrollments and the stock index, and exponential growth data, such as inventory demand, are chosen as the forecasting targets, before forecasting based on the various lengths of intervals is performed. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses are also carried out for various percentiles. The ratio-based lengths of intervals are found to outperform the effective lengths of intervals, as well as the arbitrary ones in regard to the different statistical measures. The empirical analysis suggests that the ratio-based lengths of intervals can also be used to improve fuzzy time series forecasting.