The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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Motivation - This paper describes ongoing PhD research to develop and evaluate practical tools for use by operators to manage and control their risks in a dynamic environment, before starting and while undertaking an activity/task. Research approach - Three different industries are examined: mining, railway and construction. In each, several different comparative high-risk activities are examined; for example, working at heights. Findings/Design - Initial observations are currently taking place, before subsequent detailed data collection. Research limitations/Implications - Final risk management and decision making tools developed will likely differ for application depending on the company's maturity in risk management and level of risk by task/activity type. Originality/Value - This ongoing research explores the area of risk management and decision making, and is looking to marry together the appropriate common sets of systems and cognitive perspectives. Take away message - Practical tools, possibly computer-based, can be developed to help operators manage and control risks.