From certainty factors to belief networks

Authors:
David E. Heckerman;Edward H. Shortliffe
Affiliations:
Section on Medical Informatics, Stanford University School of Medicine, MSOB X-215, 300 Pasteur Drive, Stanford, CA 94305-5479, USA;Section on Medical Informatics, Stanford University School of Medicine, MSOB X-215, 300 Pasteur Drive, Stanford, CA 94305-5479, USA
Venue:
Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
Year:
1992

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Abstract

The certainty-factor (CF) model is a commonly used method for managing uncertainty in rule-based systems. We review the history and mechanics of the CF model, and delineate precisely its theoretical and practical limitations. In addition, we examine the belief network, a representation that is similar to the CF model but that is grounded firmly in probability theory. We show that the belief-network representation overcomes many of the limitations of the CF model, and provides a promising approach to the practical construction of expert systems.