Decision making with fuzzy probability assessments

  • Authors:
  • R. R. Yager

  • Affiliations:
  • Machine Intelligence Inst., Iona Coll., New Rochelle, NY

  • Venue:
  • IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems
  • Year:
  • 1999

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Abstract

We discuss the idea of a fuzzy probability assessment, the association a collection of fuzzy probabilities with the outcomes of a random experiment. Fuzzy probability assessments often result from the linguistic specification of probabilities as provided by human experts. The question of consistency of the fuzzy probability assessment is considered. Finally, the problem of decision-making, selecting a best alternative action, in the face of a fuzzy probability assessment is investigated. Here we focus on the issue of obtaining the expected payoff of alternatives in the face of a fuzzy probability assessment. In the course of solving this problem we develop a representation of an effective probability distribution in the face of a fuzzy probability assessment