Adversarial Risk Analysis: The Somali Pirates Case

Authors:
Juan Carlos Sevillano;David Rios Insua;Jesus Rios
Affiliations:
Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain;Royal Academy of Sciences, 28004 Madrid, Spain;IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York 10598
Venue:
Decision Analysis
Year:
2012

Citing 4
Cited 4

Defending Critical Infrastructure

Interfaces
OR Forum---Homeland Security: From Mathematical Models to Policy Implementation: The 2008 Philip McCord Morse Lecture

Operations Research
Adversarial Risk Analysis: What's new, what isn't?: Discussion of Adversarial Risk Analysis: Borel Games

Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Adversarial risk analysis: Borel games

Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

From the Editors---Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk

Decision Analysis
From the Editors---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics

Decision Analysis
From the Editors---Brainstorming, Multiplicative Utilities, Partial Information on Probabilities or Outcomes, and Regulatory Focus

Decision Analysis
From the Editors: Probability Approximations, Anti-Terrorism Strategy, and Bull's-Eye Display for Performance Feedback

Decision Analysis

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Abstract

We show how adversarial risk analysis may cope with a current important security issue in relation with piracy off the Somali coasts. Specifically, we describe how to support the owner of a ship in managing risks from piracy in that area. We illustrate how a sequential defend--attack--defend model can be used to formulate this decision problem and solve it for the ship owner. Our formulation models the pirates' behavior through the analysis of how they could solve their decision problem.