A stochastic model of the HIV epidemic for heterosexual transmission involving married couples and prostitutes: II. The chain multinomial model of the HIV epidemic

Authors:
W. Y. Tan;X. Zhu
Affiliations:
Department of Mathematical Sciences The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, U.S.A.;Department of Mathematical Sciences The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, U.S.A.
Venue:
Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
Year:
1997

Citing 2
Cited 0

The chain multinomial models of the HIV epidemiology in homosexual populations

Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
A stochastic model of the HIV epidemic for heterosexual transmission involving married couples and prostitutes: I. The probabilities of HIV transmission and pair formation

Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal

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Abstract

This is a follow-up paper of Tan and Zhu [1] in which we have considered a large population consisting of single males, single females, married couples, and prostitutes. For assessing effects of risk factors on the HIV epidemic by heterosexual transmission and the role of prostitutes in this paper, we have developed chain multinomial models for the HIV epidemic in these populations. Through Monte Carlo studies, we have shown that prostitutes form a stepping stone for the HIV epidemic by heterosexual transmission. Among the risk factors affecting HIV prevalence, our numerical results have indicated that the frequency of condom use is the most important factor followed by the number of sexual partners per unit time. Thus, promoting condom use among prostitutes may serve as a major avenue to control the spread of HIV through heterosexual transmission.