A comparative study of artificial neural networks, and decision trees for digital game content stocks price prediction

Authors:
Tsung-Sheng Chang
Affiliations:
Department of Information Management, National Chung Cheng University, Min-Hsiung, Chia-Yi 621, Taiwan, ROC
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2011

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Abstract

Precise prediction of stock prices is difficult chiefly because of the many intervening factors. Unpredictability is particularly notable in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Data mining may however be used to discover highly correlated estimation models. This study looks at artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and the hybrid model of ANN and decision trees (hybrid model), the three common algorithm methods used for numerical analysis, to forecast stock prices. The author compared the stock price forecasting models derived from the three methods, and applied the models on 10 different stocks in 320 data sets in an empirical forecast. Average accuracy of ANN is 15.31%, the highest, in terms of match with real market stock prices, followed by decision trees, at 14.06%; hybrid model is 13.75%. The study also discovers that compared to the other two methods, ANN is a more stable method for predicting stock prices in the volatile post-crisis stock market.