Hidden order: how adaptation builds complexity
Hidden order: how adaptation builds complexity
Proceedings of the 13th annual conference companion on Genetic and evolutionary computation
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A water distribution contamination event occurs when a chemical or pathogen is introduced to a pipe network dedicated to the delivery of potable water. During an event, complex interactions among consumers, utility operators, decision makers, and the pipe network can influence the number of exposed consumers, as human actors adapt their water use activities in response to warnings or exposure. An agent-based model is developed to model the water contamination event and provides insight and understanding about the effect of interactions on public health, such as the number of exposed consumers. Utility operators can protect consumers using a wide range of mitigation responses, and opening a set of hydrants is typically an effective strategy for flushing contaminated water before it reaches consumers. The ABM framework is coupled with an Evolutionary Strategy (ES)-based search to identify an optimal strategy for manipulating hydrants to minimize the number of exposed consumers. The application of the simulation-optimization framework is demonstrated for a virtual mid-sized municipality, Mesopolis.