Robust Optimization in Simulation: Taguchi and Krige Combined

  • Authors:
  • Gabriella Dellino;Jack P. C. Kleijnen;Carlo Meloni

  • Affiliations:
  • IMT Institute for Advanced Studies, 55100 Lucca, Italy;Department of Information Management and CentER, Tilburg School of Economics and Management, Tilburg University, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands;Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, Polytechnic University of Bari, 70125 Bari, Italy

  • Venue:
  • INFORMS Journal on Computing
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

Optimization of simulated systems is the goal of many methods, but most methods assume known environments. We, however, develop a “robust” methodology that accounts for uncertain environments. Our methodology uses Taguchi's view of the uncertain world but replaces his statistical techniques by design and analysis of simulation experiments based on Kriging (Gaussian process model); moreover, we use bootstrapping to quantify the variability in the estimated Kriging metamodels. In addition, we combine Kriging with nonlinear programming, and we estimate the Pareto frontier. We illustrate the resulting methodology through economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory models. Our results suggest that robust optimization requires order quantities that differ from the classic EOQ. We also compare our results with results we previously obtained using response surface methodology instead of Kriging.