Modeling multiple distributions of student performances to improve predictive accuracy

  • Authors:
  • Yue Gong;Joseph E. Beck;Carolina Ruiz

  • Affiliations:
  • Computer Science Department, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA;Computer Science Department, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA;Computer Science Department, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA

  • Venue:
  • UMAP'12 Proceedings of the 20th international conference on User Modeling, Adaptation, and Personalization
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a general approach to improve student modeling predictive accuracy. The approach was designed based on the assumption that student performance is sampled from multiple, rather than only one, distribution and thus should be modeled by multiple classification models. We applied k-means to identify student performances sampled from those multiple distributions, using no additional features beyond binary correctness of student responses. We trained a separate classification model for each distribution and applied the learned models to unseen students to evaluate our approach. The results showed that compared to the base classifier, our proposed approach is able to improve predictive accuracy: 4.3% absolute improvement in R2 and 0.03 absolute improvement in AUC, which are not trivial improvements considering the current state of the art in student modeling.