A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the Analytic Network Process

Authors:
Hsu-Shih Shih;E. Stanley Lee;Shun-Hsiang Chuang;Chiau-Ching Chen
Affiliations:
Graduate Institute of Management Sciences, Tamkang University Tamsui, New Taipei 25137, Taiwan, ROC;Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA;Graduate Institute of Management Sciences, Tamkang University Tamsui, New Taipei 25137, Taiwan, ROC;Graduate Institute of Management Sciences, Tamkang University Tamsui, New Taipei 25137, Taiwan, ROC
Venue:
Computers & Mathematics with Applications
Year:
2012

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Abstract

This study applies the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to forecast the sales volume of printers in Taiwan for adjusting the recycling and treatment fee as an incentive for recycling industries. When historical data are lacking and when a broad spectrum of social impact is involved, the ANP, with the capacity to manage dependence and feedback among the factors, can serve as a tool to forecast outcomes by using expert judgment. The priorities derived from numerical judgment are similar to probabilities. They are obtained from the limit supermatrix of the ANP that represents forecasts for the next period. The result of back testing has shown that the ANP's percentage error is small compared with those of some naive statistical techniques. Sensitivity analysis is also made to ensure robustness of the model. Finally, the characteristic strengths of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ANP in forecasting are discussed to simplify their use in future applications.