Simulation
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There are two kinds of uncertainty in science: structural and parametric uncertainty. Parametric uncertainty means that we know the relevant factors and their interrelations for a given phenomenon, but miss the exact (initial) values of these factors. Structural uncertainty means that we are unsure if we know all the relevant factors and their interdependencies. Using this conceptual distinction it is clear that every simulation model for tactical wargaming is necessarily affected by massive structural uncertainty, since the "fog of war" has not lifted much since the days of Clausewitz. The term "fog" seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding own capabilities, adversary capabilities and intents, as well as many other factors. However, if war is seen that way, it is necessarily insufficient to base decisions on frameworks that only deal with parametric uncertainty. The classical approach to make decisions, rational analysis, has therefore severe limitations for this application. The major consequence of structural uncertainty for simulation supported decision making is that stochastic parameter variation and subsequent statistical analysis are inadequate as the sole basis for critical decisions. The paper discusses this calamity and, as a solution, suggests tactical wargaming, a method based on assumption based planning, scenario planning, expert intuition and exploratory simulation. This approach significantly differs from standard wargaming, which, in the author's view, is too focused on parametric uncertainty.