Optimization and response surfaces: Gaussian radial basis functions for simulation metamodeling
Proceedings of the 34th conference on Winter simulation: exploring new frontiers
Artificial Intelligence techniques: An introduction to their use for modelling environmental systems
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation
Prediction of pricing and hedging errors for equity linked warrants with Gaussian process models
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Comparing classification techniques for predicting essential hypertension
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Environmental Modelling & Software
Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for estimating heavy metals in sediments of Caspian Sea
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A fast differential evolution algorithm using k-Nearest Neighbour predictor
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Hi-index | 12.05 |
The purpose of this paper is to analyze alternative forecasting methods that produce results at least similar to or better than linear regression (MLR) that can be used in the modeling of social systems. While organizations may be considered as typically non-linear systems, the common feature of most models found in literature continues to be the use of linear regression techniques. From a case study, advanced statistical methods of Gaussian and Kriging are evaluated, as well as an artificial intelligence (AI) tool, the radial basis function (RBF). The results show the best performance of the suggested methods compared to MLR, especially RBF, because of its uniform prediction behavior throughout all ranges of evaluation. These techniques, although somewhat unconventional in social systems modeling, present a potential contribution in increasing the accuracy and precision of the predictions allowing a more accurate assessment of the impact of certain strategies on the project performance to be made before the allocation of material, human and financial resources.