Rare events of Gaussian processes: a performance comparison between bridge Monte-Carlo and importance sampling

  • Authors:
  • Stefano Giordano;Massimiliano Gubinelli;Michele Pagano

  • Affiliations:
  • Università di Pisa, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Pisa, Italy;Université de Paris-Sud, Equipe de probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation, Orsay Cedex, France;Università di Pisa, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Pisa, Italy

  • Venue:
  • NEW2AN'07 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Next Generation Teletraffic and Wired/Wireless Advanced Networking
  • Year:
  • 2007

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Abstract

A goal of modern broadband networks is their ability to provide stringent QoS guarantees to different classes of users. This feature is often related to events with a small probability of occurring, but with severe consequences when they occur. In this paper we focus on the overflow probability estimation and analyze the performance of Bridge Monte-Carlo (BMC), an alternative to Importance Sampling (IS), for the Monte-Carlo estimation of rare events with Gaussian processes. After a short description of BMC estimator, we prove that the proposed approach has clear advantages over the widespread single-twist IS in terms of variance reduction. Finally, to better highlight the theoretical results, we present some simulation outcomes for a single server queue fed by fraction Brownian motion, the canonical model in the framework of long range dependent traffic.