ARIMA model-based web services trustworthiness evaluation and prediction

  • Authors:
  • Meng Li;Zhebang Hua;Junfeng Zhao;Yanzhen Zou;Bing Xie

  • Affiliations:
  • Software Institute, School of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing, China,Key Laboratory of High Confidence Software Technologies, Ministry of Education, Beijin ...;Software Institute, School of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing, China,Key Laboratory of High Confidence Software Technologies, Ministry of Education, Beijin ...;Software Institute, School of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing, China,Key Laboratory of High Confidence Software Technologies, Ministry of Education, Beijin ...;Software Institute, School of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing, China,Key Laboratory of High Confidence Software Technologies, Ministry of Education, Beijin ...;Software Institute, School of Electronics Engineering and Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing, China,Key Laboratory of High Confidence Software Technologies, Ministry of Education, Beijin ...

  • Venue:
  • ICSOC'12 Proceedings of the 10th international conference on Service-Oriented Computing
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

As most Web services are delivered by third parties over unreliable Internet and are late bound at run-time, it is reasonable and useful to evaluate and predict the trustworthiness of Web services. In this paper, we propose an ARIMA model-based approach to evaluate and predict Web services trustworthiness. First, we evaluate Web services trustworthiness with comprehensive trustworthy evidences collected from the Internet on a regular basis. Then, the cumulative trustworthiness evaluation records are modeled as time series. Finally, we propose an ARIMA model-based multi-step Web services trustworthiness prediction process, which can automatically and iteratively identify and optimize the model to fit the trustworthiness series data. Experiments conducted on a large-scale real-world data set show that our method can effectively evaluate and predict the trustworthiness of Web services, which helps users to reuse Web services.