Finding interesting contexts for explaining deviations in bus trip duration using distribution rules

Authors:
Alípio M. Jorge;João Mendes-Moreira;Jorge Freire de Sousa;Carlos Soares;Paulo J. Azevedo
Affiliations:
LIAAD-INESC TEC DCC-FCUP, Universidade do Porto, Portugal;LIAAD-INESC TEC, DEI-FEUP, Universidade do Porto, Portugal;UGEI-INESC TEC, DEGI-FEUP, Universidade do Porto, Portugal;INESC TEC, FEP, Universidade do Porto, Portugal;Haslab-INESC TEC, Universidade do Minho, Portugal
Venue:
IDA'12 Proceedings of the 11th international conference on Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis
Year:
2012

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Abstract

In this paper we study the deviation of bus trip duration and its causes. Deviations are obtained by comparing scheduled times against actual trip duration and are either delays or early arrivals. We use distribution rules, a kind of association rules that may have continuous distributions on the consequent. Distribution rules allow the systematic identification of particular conditions, which we call contexts, under which the distribution of trip time deviations differs significantly from the overall deviation distribution. After identifying specific causes of delay the bus company operational managers can make adjustments to the timetables increasing punctuality without disrupting the service.