Online predictive model for taxi services

  • Authors:
  • Luís Moreira-Matias;João Gama;Michel Ferreira;João Mendes-Moreira;Luís Damas

  • Affiliations:
  • Departamento de Engenharia Informática, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal,LIAAD-INESC TEC., Porto, Portugal;LIAAD-INESC TEC., Porto, Portugal,Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal;Instituto de Telecomunicações, Departamento de Ciência de Computadores, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal,Geolink, Porto, Portugal;Departamento de Engenharia Informática, Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal,LIAAD-INESC TEC., Porto, Portugal;Geolink, Porto, Portugal

  • Venue:
  • IDA'12 Proceedings of the 11th international conference on Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

In recent years, both companies and researchers have been exploring intelligent data analysis to increase the profitability of the taxi industry. Intelligent systems for online taxi dispatching and time saving route finding have been built to do so. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to produce online predictions regarding the spatial distribution of passenger demand throughout taxi stand networks. We have done so by assembling two well-known time series short-term forecast models: the time-varying Poisson models and ARIMA models. Our tests were performed using data gathered over a period of 6 months and collected from 63 taxi stands within the city of Porto, Portugal. Our results demonstrate that this model is a true major contribution to the driver mobility intelligence: 78% of the 253745 demanded taxi services were correctly forecasted in a 30 minutes horizon.