Simulation for the Social Scientist
Simulation for the Social Scientist
Complexity: A Guided Tour
Mic-core: a tool for microsimulation
Winter Simulation Conference
Complex systems modeling for supply and demand in health and social care
Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
A multi-paradigm, whole system view of health and social care for age-related macular degeneration
Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
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The UK's population is aging, which presents a challenge as older people are the primary users of health and social care services. We present an agent-based model of the basic demographic processes that impinge on the supply of, and demand for, social care: namely mortality, fertility, health-status transitions, internal migration, and the formation and dissolution of partnerships and households. Agent-based modeling is used to capture the idea of "linked lives" and thus to represent hypotheses that are impossible to express in alternative formalisms. Simulation runs suggest that the per-taxpayer cost of state-funded social care could double over the next forty years. A key benefit of the approach is that we can treat the average cost of state-funded care as an outcome variable, and examine the projected effect of different sets of assumptions about the relevant social processes.