Forcasting uncertain hotel room demand
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Pricing and the News Vendor Problem: a Review with Extensions
Operations Research
An integrated approach to forecasting and inventory management of short life cycle products
An integrated approach to forecasting and inventory management of short life cycle products
Newsvendor problem with pricing: properties, algorithms, and simulation
WSC '05 Proceedings of the 37th conference on Winter simulation
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
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The uncertain demand of expiration-dated item often leads to scrap losses or opportunity losses, which result in resource wasting and the degradation of customer satisfaction. In this paper, a well known exponential smoothing method was modified to forecast the hourly demand of rice balls, by utilizing the concept of the newsvendor problem, and a simulation model was constructed to simulate the scrap loss and opportunity loss changes. The optimal order quantity's characteristics, which can maximize the retailer's expected profit, were clarified by using OptQuest and sensitivity analysis. The proposed approach was applied to a real store to confirm its effectiveness.